Just as the commoditization of global transportation, communication
network and manufacturing lingua franca led to the globalization in
manufacturing, the emergence of highly configured devices, changing
macroeconomics, geopolitics and evolving knowledge and preferences of both OEMs
and consumers will lead to the end of Chinese hegemony in manufacturing. It will also lead to the emergence of a more
logical (and flexible) dispersed operations and manufacturing model that relies
on true "national competitive advantage" and less on pure wage
competitiveness.
As Michael Porter stated in the Harvard Business Review in
1990, “A nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade.”
Lasting national competitive advantage is generated through
innovation at the corporate level, not policy or monetary manipulation. That innovation can take many forms –
product, marketing, financial, or production.
Companies who read the tea leaves of the current
macroeconomic environment (as well as that of the current geopolitical
environment) and who seek to innovate in ways that are unexpected will set the
bar in terms of competitiveness. To
many, it almost feels contrarian in nature.
While the crowd goes one way, the innovators look for opportunities in
the other direction.
And so it goes with manufacturing. Rather than completely consolidating
globalized transportation and manufacturing into macro-scale contact
manufacturers and distributors, the contrarians are finding increased value in
rethinking production on a local scale.
Breaking the supply chain at key strategic junctures and onshoring the
“last mile” of the supply chain to nimble US-based manufacturers, companies can
move IP-sensitive steps, weight-laden features, and other components of the
supply chain back onshore.
Let me conclude by stating that I am not predicting a total
demise of Chinese Manufacturing, but rather that China, like many other
countries, will be a supplier of certain commodities and services in which it
has national competitiveness - industries the Chinese State wants to be a
leader in and those where labor content and lax environmental regulation makes
China a logical choice of manufacturers.
I think that this means high-volume undifferentiated goods, high-volume
PCB assemblies and certain ‘dirty’ components (flat screens, PCB Fabs,
electroplated goods and so on. China
will, in short, become a major, but not the only, Global player.
No longer is it a lock that Chinese companies provide the
best cost, best timing, and most IP-secure solutions for globalized supply
chains. Through innovative thinking
about supply chains - - thinking that combines the best aspects of global
sourcing and local manufacturing capabilities – U.S. based companies are
beginning to leverage true national competitiveness and finding success in
ways that we could not have envisioned
20 years ago.